Hoop Factor: 2025 NYS Section V Boys Basketball Playoffs

By Jon Terry

March 1, 2025

Section 5 play-off Champs have been anything but predictable over the last several years. With a bunch of tough and tested #1 Seeds for 2025 tournament, will this year be the exception? We think so!

The winner of a likely rematch between Rush Henrietta and Fairport in AAA will walk away victorious. At AA1, Penfield is a clear favorite, while at AA2, Monroe may interrupt a rematch between Greece Athena and Canandaigua.

The A bracket features potential East vs Wayne matchup, a re-match of last year’s championship, with a number of mysteries among teams that have not played each other in this bracket.

World of Inquiry should justify the #1 seed in B1, but faces a competitive and seasoned bracket, while Avon in B2, with a couple signature wins over larger schools, and a stellar record, looks tough to beat … though we smell an upset!

Unpredictability abounds in Section V playoffs over the last 5 years, and #1 Seeds have not had smooth rides to Blue Cross Glory.  In fact, #2 Seeds are more likely to be champions, and #4 Seeds have a way of creeping into the picture.

It seems inevitable: in some bracket at some level, at least a couple #1 seeds will get knocked off, 2 seeds will win, and a 4 seed has a shot.

Let’s take a look at the each bracket

AAA

With only 6 teams, there are 2 clear favorites in this bracket: The Royal Comets of Rush-Henrietta, and the Fairport Red Raiders. Don’t fully discount 3-5 – they’ve all played tough schedules, have strong coaching, multi-talented, veteran guards, and winning programs – but the likelihood of one of them breaking through this year is small.

Here’s how the the Top 5 seeds compare.

Likely Championship: Rush-Henrietta vs Fairport

RH won the season series 2-0, in close games, by 4, and then 3 in overtime.  The Royal Comets came back from big deficits in both games, erasing early leads. Fairport has defenders that can bother Taggart and Council, but both still managed to go on key runs in each game. 

Each team has signature wins against national programs, with Fairport setting down Canisius and Bishop Timon-St. Jude from Buffalo, and RH beating Greene Tech.  Each team has manhandled most local competition. This is a high-level prospective match-up between two really good teams.

Rush wins ifthey control the glass, get to running, close out shooters, and avoid again falling into a significant deficit to the Red Raiders. 

Fairport wins ifthey hit 4th quarter threes, don’t get manhandled on the boards, succeed again at disrupting R-H’s offense for long stretches, and find a way for someone other than Lowry to finish consistently at the rim when RH extends perimeter pressure.

Dark Horses: None

Outside Shot: U-Prep, Aquinas, McQuaid

Records nothwithstanding, Acquinas, UPrep, and McQuaid will be tough outs. While it’s a long-shot and we don’t think any play for the title this year, each brings enough talent, toughness and experience for a one-game shocker.  

Our Prediction: R-H, not quite as close as the regular season games.

Recent AAA results by seed suggest an upset (see table above). The fact that beating a closely-matched team 3 times is really hard also suggests an upset. 

But R-H has a higher max gear than Fairport, and though the games were close, the Royal Comets won the key late possessions in each of their seasonal match-ups.

We tussled over this one, but don’t call toss-ups on these pages. R-H has more firepower, and will bring it.

AA1

This bracket feels like a slam dunk for Penfield. They’ve played well against AAA competition, and been fairly dominant at their level, but for a close call against their likely championship opponent, Webster Thomas.

A comparison of the Top 5 Seeds shows a wide gap between the Top 2 and everyone else, and a fair amount of space between 1 and 2.

Likely Championship: Penfield vs. Webster Thomas

Penfield won the season series 1-0, by 8, in OT.

Dark Horses: None

Outside Shot: None

Neither Schroeder, Irondequoit nor Victor have a signature win this year that suggests an upset is happening. Nod to 1000 pt. scorer Griffin Hopkins of Victor at almost 25 per game, and hoopers Chase Leonardo of Irondequoit, Levi Kuluk of Webster Thomas, and Connor Fulkerson from Schroeder, tough checks on any night that can be troublesome

Our Prediction: Penfield, convincingly.

Though Webster-Thomas is a solid Program with high-IQ veterans, Penfield is bigger and better this year, and battle-tested.

AA2

The Trojans of Greece-Athena hold the inside track, but it won’t be easy to emerge from this bracket.

Monroe and Canandaigua have had excellent years, and played a range of strong programs, and held their own against common opponents. Mendon and Gates-Chili have put together nice seasons, but lag compared to the Top 3.

Likely Championship: Greece Athena v Monroe

These teams did not meet this year. Canandaigua is a strong candidate to displace Monroe, but we think Monroe played a tougher schedule.

Dark Horses: Canandaigua

This team played Greece Athena twice, losing by only 6 in the 2nd game, and played a strong schedule overall. They have a very good chance to compete for the title.

Outside Shot: None

While Mendon and Gates Chili will not get to the Finals this year, Tyler Knapp of Mendon, and Joey Vergozi of G-C, will make teams play defense.

Our Prediction: Greece-Athena.

A

This bracket is very interesting and tough to predict, as the Top 5 teams have not played many common opponents, nor one another, with enough frequency to be predictive. However, Wayne and East look to be on another collision course.

Likely Championship: East vs Wayne

Geneva had a nice year, but we don’t see enough to put them in the same strata as these East and Wayne. Fate has called for a rematch. Let’s have it.

Dark Horses: Pittsford-Sutherland

We were impressed by their late season perrformance and win over Greece-Athena. There’s bound to be an upset. Maybe this is the one.

Outside Shot: Batavia

The Blue Devils have played a strong schedule, and been very consistent.

Our Prediction: East gets revenge from last year.

B Brackets

These brackets are closely-matched with several dominant teams at the top of the seedings that have yet to play each other.

Over the last 5 years, this is the most likely bracket to spring an upset, with a 75% likelihood the winner will NOT be a 1 Seed. Check out this chart.

So where will upsets happen?  Read on!

B1

This bracket is incredibly tough, headed by World of Inquiry with lights-out guard Jaedon Adams-Griffin, and high-scoring N’shawn Falks. But every team in the Top 5 has signature wins, and could be dangerous. We also see a #6 seed as a dark-horse.

Wellsville is dangerous at the 5 seed, and we believe will advance past Hornell today, and give World of Inquiry trouble in the Semis.

Leroy is our first major upset call, as we them losing to Myndurse on Saturday. The Blue Devils of Myndurse have played a lot of good teams well, while Leroy hasn’t held up against the strongest teams.

We then have Myndurse upsetting Waterloo to make it to the Finals.

Likely Championship: World of Inquiry vs Myndurse

Dark Horse: Wellsville

Our Prediction: World of Inquiry

Mynderse eliminated WOI last year in a game where the Griffins did not perform as well as they had most of the year. The Griffins are ready and hungry this year, and the fact that Mynderse upsets their way to the Finals is a further motivational gift.

These teams faced off once in the regular season, with World of Inquiry winning by 7. We think they win by more this time to take home the sectional title.

B2

The B2 bracket is even tighter than B1, and we see a major upset here in the Title game.

Top-seeded Avon has played a strong schedule, with signature wins of AAA Acquinas and U-Prep. But Lyons stands in their way.

It’ll be a dog-fight between Canisteo-Greenwood and East Rochester to get into the other Finals slot.

Likely Championship: Lyons vs. East Rochester

Lyons has come on late, and is still gearing up to play their best basketball. We believe it happens in this tournament. They’ll upset Avon to make the Finals.

East Rochester has played a slightly tougher schedule than C-G, and has history on their side: only 1 “3” seed has made the Finals, across all Section V brackets, over the last five years.

Dark Horse: We’ve already called it with our pick for the finals.

Outside Shot: The Bishop Kearney Kings are scrappy, talented, and well-coached, and feature the under-rated Charles Barkley-like Jaden Capers as a floor-running that takes over games.  On good shooting nights, they can be dangerous.

Our Prediction: Lyons

JJ Johnson is the strongest player in Section 5 across all brackets, and his game translates well for the Sectionals. East Rochester is competent and quick, but Johnson will slow them down and get them in foul trouble.

Thanks for reading our inauguaral Hoop Factor column! 

Next, we examine the Region III, Division 2 JUCO Champship scheduled for March 2, as we pull for our hometown Tribunes!