By Jon Terry

August 23, 2023

Debates separate candidates.  The Spongey get destroyed – ask Jeb Bush, who took turns getting punched down on by Trump, and getting punched up on by L’il Marco.  Now when we think about Jeb, we think about Oatmeal.

The Intellectuals get mocked, GW Bush had ‘em laughing at Gore’s stuffy, overly-factual messaging, nobody can listen to or look at Elizabeth Warren for more than several minutes at a time, John Kerry was and is, well, just plain weird.  (Does he still do things in an official capacity, or is he just flying around, ranting? )

And the physically awkward?  If we could have tolerated Kasich’s drooling problem, he’d be President.  But we couldn’t, and still don’t want to.

We learned all these things at the Debates.

A candidate needs to be likable.  They need to be telegenic.  They need to be poised.  They cannot be all over the map in their positions.   They need to stick to their guns (pun intended) without sounding scripted.

What will we learn tonight?  Our predictions:

Goners: Ron DeSantis and Asa Hutchinson

Governor DeSantis is dropping like a Corleone brother that was invited on a fishing trip, and is completely done: not surprisingly, few people want a sweaty, non-charismatic anti-stuff wrestler of a politician to run the country.  His desperation will be apparent tonight, and it will as ugly and undoing as a Howard Schultz victory whoop.

Hutchinson’s attacks on Trump are steady.  He’s succeeded at some noteworthy prosecutions.  He was the Governor of Arkansas.  Nobody cares.  We’ll be getting snacks when he talks.

Survivors: Tim Scott, Chris Christie, Doug Burnham

Senator Scott seems to have no unique message, and no cache’ … where’s the fire?  The needle needs to move tonight if he’s to become relevant in this race.

Christie has no chance to be President.  And he won’t quit.  As the Ralph Kramden Candidate, he’s delightful, and we’re happy to have him for a couple more debates.  We sure hope he sends some people to the Moon tonight.

Burnham should be a goner considering his initial chances, and the fact that he may no-show after a going to the hospital for a leg injury the very morning of this Debate.  But Burnham is likable and smart and very wealthy, Romney-esque: he’ll do well if he shows, and has deep enough pockets to hang tough if he does not.

The Exposed: Vivek Ramaswamy

Ramaswamy is an appealing speaker with shiny choppers, a knack for sound bytes, a seemingly cool guy, relatable tech bro type.  With that, he lacks depth and substance and conviction, and will be pilloried by the experienced politicians on the stage with him.

The Winners:  Nikki Haley and Mike Pence

Haley is trying to thread the needle, young, likable, hip, modern, but not woke, conservative, family-oriented, tough but not Freedom Caucus Right.   We think she pulls it off tonight.  And  If she takes on Trump, she’ll make an even bigger leap.  Either way, she finishes a close second to Mike Pence. 

Yes, Mother’s Mike Pence.

Pence is a skilled debater that danced circles around Kamala Harris, as Dems, we found it hard to watch, it was so masterful and clearly decisive.  Moreover, he’s steady, his messaging is resolute, and his integrity is not in question.    Those qualities will come across tonight, with a base that does not object to his Conservative values.

A lot of Republicans actually do want want a balanced adult leading their ticket.  Which brings us to …

The Loser: Donald Trump

You cannot remain the biggest dog in the room if you don’t show up for the Fight.  He’s scared, and even his base has to feel a little disappointed that their hero is sitting this one out.   The Debate ratings will crush his bro-fest with Tucker Carlson, which will in turn crush the Don’s ego, and, hopefully, produce yet another completely unhinged Truth Social rant.

Watch tonight at 9 on Fox, then check in with thetizzle.com tomorrow as we examine the results of our fearless predictions!